The results of a public opinion poll organized by the
Japanese Cabinet to evaluate the level of popular support for the various
mid-term greenhouse gas reduction targets lying before the Prime Minister have
shown on Friday that 45.4% of Japanese support a 7% cut in emissions relative
to 1990 levels.
Support for a 4% increase in emissions, a position enjoying
the strong backing of the conservative Japanese Business Federation
(Keidanren), lies at 15.3%. Further 13.5% favour a 15% cut. Finally, the 25%
reduction target, similar in spirit with the EU’s 20% reduction target and
enjoying the backing of domestic environmental NGOs, received a 4.9% level of
support among respondents. The rest were undecided.
Prior to this poll, public hearings had been organized
during late April and early May in major population centres. Attended mainly by
representatives of businesses and environment NGOs, they resulted in polarized
outcomes, with over 70% supporting the most lenient +4% target and over 20%
supporting the most stringent -25% target. This public opinion poll targeted
for the first time the Japanese public at large, instead of specific
stakeholders.
Following a discussion of the opinion poll, Japanese Minister
of the Environment Tetsuo Saitō (Clean Government Party/ Kōmeitō) chose to
remind his colleagues in an interview after the Cabinet meeting yesterday that
“-15% and -25% are among our options, as well” (Mainichi – Japanese only). This represents a break with the
minister’s usual silent stance and demonstrates for the first time any of his personal
opinions on any of the possible targets.
Saitō, in an exclusive interview (Asahi – Japanese only), further
states today that he hoped to inspire a lively debate both inside and outside
the government. Pointing out that the above targets refer purely to domestic
reductions, and therefore exclude emissions trading and carbon sinks, he
further adds that Japan
was obligated to impress upon the world its intention to contribute
pro-actively in the fight against global warming by proclaiming a 15-25%
reduction target during international negotiations. He deems the -15% target as
“achievable”, should solar energy and eco-cars be introduced.
Conversely, Keidanren continues to characterize the Kyoto
Protocol as a “diplomatic failure”. In response to criticism by the Ministry of
Environment, the federation recently voiced the aspersion that “the function of
those in the administration is to advocate the national interest in order to
prevent the excessive burdening of the population” (Mainichi – Japanese only).
Domestic news channels point out that a 7% cut in emissions
is estimated to cost Japan
twice as much as what the EU is likely to incur in order to achieve its 20% cut
in emissions. Critics further point out that, even if the EU and US achieved
20% reductions by 2020, they would still be lag in their carbon intensity
figures behind Japan’s
2005 level. On the other hand, Japan
has yet to introduce any significant economic measures to tackle global
warming.
According to latest data, Japanese emissions in 2007 lay 15%
above the country’s target for the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period. The
country has been heavily buying carbon credits on global markets to make up for
its excess emissions. The poll’s most popular target, of 7% emissions cut by
2020, deepens Japan’s
current 6% target for the first commitment period by only 1 percentage point.
If it is adopted by the Prime Minister as Japan’s
official mid-term target and if Tokyo’s
climate policy continues to evolve apace, one can only wish “Happy shopping!”
to whatever Japanese administration may be in power ten years from now.
Texts reflect the opinions of the individual authors
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